Choosing Customers Means Allocating Resources

Targeting a new segment can look like a straightforward marketing choice. It also consumes selling time, inventory space, after-sales support, and sometimes additional financing. Imagine a small company accepting highly customized orders because their invoice values are large. If those orders absorb most of the […]

Why the Favoured Outcome Sometimes Loses

If an event truly has a calibrated sixty percent probability, the other outcome still has forty percent. Seeing the less likely outcome once does not disprove the estimate. Seeing the favoured outcome once does not validate it either. Evaluation requires a sequence of preserved forecasts […]